Grid & Degrees
Electrification · heating

Heating electrification

The hardest sector to shift, and the one most exposed to policy. Heating equipment is replaced once every 15–25 years, usually in an emergency, by a plumber, at the worst possible moment to make a considered choice. Subsidy design does almost all the work here — which is why this page ends with the incentives, country by country.

The 2024 collapse, and the 2025 recovery

European heat pump sales peaked in 2022 on the back of the gas price shock, then fell for two years as gas prices normalised and subsidy schemes in the two largest markets went through public turmoil. 2025 recovered 13% — still 13% below the 2022 peak.

Who recovered and who didn't

Germany added half again as many units as the year before, and heat pumps took half its new heating market for the first time. France, still the largest market in Europe by units, went backwards while its subsidy scheme was being rewritten mid-year.

Sales intensity, normalised for market size

Units per 1,000 households — the only comparison that is fair between Finland and Spain. The spread is roughly 30 to 1 between the top and bottom of this list.

Incentives, country by country

What is actually on offer as of July 2026, what it is worth, and how stable it looks. The status column is the part worth reading: several of these schemes were generous and reliable two years ago and are neither now.

Check before you rely on this. Heat pump subsidies change mid-year, run out of budget, and get re-scoped more often than any other dataset on this site. Every row here was checked in July 2026 against the administering agency's own documentation, but a scheme can close between that check and your reading it. Treat this table as a map of the landscape, not as a quote.

Why the subsidy is not the whole story

Three things decide whether a household switches, and the grant is only one of them.

  • The electricity-to-gas price ratio. A heat pump running at a seasonal efficiency of 300% only beats a 90%-efficient gas boiler on running cost if electricity costs less than about 3.3× gas per unit of energy. In much of Europe the ratio sits uncomfortably close to that line, because electricity carries most of the policy levies.
  • Installer supply. Grants are spent by trained installers, and training capacity moves far more slowly than a budget line. The UK's constraint has been installers, not the size of its grant, which is among the most generous per household in Europe.
  • Whether the decision is planned or forced. Most boilers are replaced within days of failing. A scheme that requires a survey, a quote and an application cannot compete with a same-week gas swap unless someone plans ahead.

Latest coverage

Headlines from third-party publishers, linked in full. Nothing here feeds the figures above — it is context, not source data. All headlines.